The new it?

Hiiiii, 

I’ve been OOO for a while, and when I came back I saw prediction markets trending so here’s my take that no one asked for

Prediction markets print attention. Print attention in the way “ is it a blue dress or a gold dress” kind. They hijack culture by turning curiosity into obsession, and that’s exactly why they work.

Let me explain.

They work

Prediction markets are basically the Taylor Swift Eras Tour of finance. Stay with me.

When Swift dropped her surprise “double album” at 2 a.m., the internet combusted. Not because fans needed 31 new songs at once (though, yes, we did), but because every release is an event. It’s speculation, anticipation, and collective obsession wrapped into one. 

Prediction markets thrive on the exact same psychology. Especially in today’s age, audiences across the board crave those endorphins so maybe don’t fight it off.

A dopamine machine

People don’t join prediction markets because they dream of becoming probabilistic philosophers. They join because watching a number tick up or down based on vibes, memes, and chaos is addicting.

Marketing 101: keep your audience in a constant loop of anticipation → reaction → repeat.
That’s literally TikTok. It’s also literally Polymarket. When the odds swing 15% because someone sneezed during a debate, you’re locked in.

I ain’t just yapping, Kalshi reportedly accounts for 63% of the total prediction market volume and has achieved a record $175 million in daily volume. Is it cause we all like stats ? no 

According to cookie.fun Polymatkets’ social media mindshare has seen significant spikes, reaching over 1% on September 13, 2025, with generally positive sentiment over the past 60 days.

Anticipation can actually equal retention

The magic isn’t in the payout, it’s in the waiting. Watching the odds swing on “Will Bitcoin hit $100k by year-end?” scratches the same itch as waiting to see which surprise song shows up on Swift’s setlist.

Marketing loves this because anticipation keeps people coming back. You’re not passively consuming content, you’re refreshing, predicting, checking again. That loop = retention gold.

Stakes = engagement

Sports betting works because you’ve got skin in the game. Prediction markets crank that dial to 11. Suddenly, you’re not just scrolling through headlines, you’re living inside them.

• “Will Zendaya win the Oscar?”

• “Will Genz overthrow the Nepal government?”

Every event becomes a content hook. Every content hook becomes a bet. Every bet becomes a reason to check back.

From a marketing perspective, this is a growth loop disguised as just a little silly game.

Crowds = credibility

In case you didn’t notice by now people actually trust markets more than polls or pundits. Why? Because the wisdom of the crowd has receipts. If thousands of people are throwing money at “Harris wins 2028,” that line feels more legit than some dude on CNN waving a chart.

And what’s better marketing than letting your users do the talking for you? The product literally generates its own PR. Headlines read themselves:

“$3.6 billion says Trump wins.”
“Kalshi traders give Taylor Swift a 40% shot at the Super Bowl.”

That’s free press. Every contract is a viral headline waiting to happen.

Why they work

Prediction markets succeed because they gamify reality. They don’t just tell you the news—they let you play the news. And humans love to play: with their money, with their attention, with their sense of “I called it first.”

From a marketing perspective, this is pure alchemy:

• News becomes content.

• Content becomes engagement.

• Engagement becomes retention.

The product markets itself because the crowd can’t stop talking about the outcomes they’re betting on.

The Big Lesson for Marketers

Prediction markets aren’t really about finance, they’re about psychology. They weaponize anticipation, FOMO, and status into a retention loop. And that’s gold for marketing.

So if you’re building campaigns, steal the mechanics:

• Make it a series, not a one-off.

• Give your audience ways to participate, not just observe.

• Let them flex when they’re right.

People love to play with the future. Your job is to give them the arena

Got questions? Feedback? You know where to find us 📞—we’re here to help you get organized, even if we’re still figuring out our own lives.

Until next lesson,

stay cookish. 🍪